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Jun
21
Before you read this article, take a couple steps back from your political opinions - because I can already hear the partisan bickering. I want you to approach this and analyze it in an antiseptic, neutral way - regardless of whether you are a Bush lover or Bush hater. I think both camps will find things to love, and hate in this article.
But, reserve judgment please - because this is an article about how history will remember George W. Bush, it is not a political judgment on his presidency. Indeed, you will find several horrible presidents who are remembered fondly by history, and many phenomenal presidents that are largely forgotten. Keep that in mind.
Now, on to the point - I’m beginning to feel as though George W. Bush may (say 20-50 years from now) be the early 2000’s Harry Truman. That is, detested when he leaves, warmly remembered as time makes the heart grow fonder.
What could possibly make me feel that way? Well, for starters I happen to understand the political history of this country. When a politician leaves office and no longer spends 24 hours a day making controversial decisions, speaking in macros, and being divisive -and well, political - we tend to warm up to them. That is especially true when circumstances after he leaves make you think back and recognize things about the man that you admire, that you never noticed while he was there.
Consider this particular quote:
As he leaves the White House at the end of his second term, the President has a poll rating of only 23 per cent, and is widely disliked and even despised. His foreign policy has been judged a failure, especially in view of the long, painful, costly war that he declared, which is still not over.
He doesn’t get on with his own party’s presidential candidate, who is clearly distancing himself, and had lost many of his closest friends and staff to scandals and forced resignations. The New Republic, a hugely influential political magazine, writes that his historical reputation will be as bad as that of President Harding, the disastrous president of the Great Depression.
Quite an indictment of George W. Bush, isn’t it?
Except it isn’t written about President Bush - this is a statement made in regards to one President Harry Truman. Scary huh?
Consider the following:
- Truman was considered a folksy, unassuming president
- Truman enlisted in the Missouri National Guard in 1905
- He believed in the spread of democracy globally, and using American military and political influence
- to see to that spread
- At one point in his second term, near the end of the Korean War, Truman’s public opinion ratings reached the lowest of any United States president, ever
- Truman became known for a long series of prominently inopportune off-the-cuff statements to members of the national press corps
- Truman was able to win bipartisan support for the Truman Doctrine, which formalized a policy of containment
- Facing low popularity (36%), Truman faced one of the more difficult re-election campaigns in modern history. His re-election was narrow and unexpected, and was widely attributed to his whistlestop tour, connecting him with the average voter
- In the end, Truman held the midwestern base, won most of the Southern states, and squeaked through with narrow victories in a few critical “battleground” states
- Truman’s second term was grueling, in large measure because of foreign policy challenges connected directly or indirectly to his policy of containment
- In the early stages of the Korean conflict, the American infantry forces hastily deployed to Korea proved too few and were under-equipped. Responding to criticism, Truman fired his Secretary of Defense
- Truman’s approval ratings plummeted to such a degree that he faced calls for his impeachment
- Fierce criticism from virtually all quarters accused Truman of refusing to shoulder the blame for a war
- The war remained a frustrating stalemate for two years, with over 30,000 Americans killed
- When he left office in 1953, Truman was one of the most unpopular chief executives in history. His job approval rating was 22 percent
I mean, good lord. The similarities are staggering. You don’t even need me to outline how each of those bullet points about Truman relates to Bush (if you do, please stop reading everything written here).
If you were alive and conscious in 1953, you probably hated Truman. Don’t play revisionist history - read any newspaper articles about him from the early 50s - you will find people who declared him “the worst president in the history of the United States”, people who were certain Truman would be condemned by history, and people that were so thankful for a “fresh start” from him that they were falling all over themselves to support Eisenhower.
Flash forward to 2008 America. Bush faces those exact same sentiments. Those of you who hate him and view his presidency as ineffectual and corrupt probably feel that intense anger inside of you, and are saying to yourself right now that history will be unkind to him, and everyone will feel just like you do in the future. You likely feel like Bush’s approval being in the 25% range is generous and is likely to get worse when we can academically look back and view his presidency.
But be careful. One of the lessons of life - not just politics - is that being removed from a situation, and giving it some time makes you re-examine, reflect and re-evaluate things. Sure, maybe you are such a stubborn and militant partisan that you will never take a look back and change your opinion about Bush - but we’re talking about the whole country here, not just you. We’re talking about history here, not right now.
You don’t think that if say, Barack Obama walked into office and suddenly we had four major terrorist attacks in four years that a great deal of the country wouldn’t start to think a bit about Bush in a slightly better light? Now, seriously be quiet you rabid partisans, I’m not saying Obama = terrorism - in fact I highly doubt anything like that would happen if he were elected, I’m only using it as an example.
The main point is that time and circumstance has a tendency to change your mind. The people who hated Truman in the 1950s felt exactly the same way about him as you do about Bush - so don’t tell me that it isn’t possible.
What’s that old adage? Absence makes the heart grow fonder? Indeed. I find it not only possible, but probable that when people look back twenty years from now, they’ll start to remember some of the things that gave him that 90% approval rating at one point (no, it wasn’t all just sympathy). I find it probable that many people will begin to soften on some of the things that gave him the 25% approval. I believe many people will start to warmly remember some of his folksy clumsiness, but at the same time his perceived stern and unwaivering committment to a principle.
Keep in mind that most people who don’t like Bush don’t like him for reasons of situation - in other words, they feel Iraq is spiraling out of control, the economy is garbage, the government is unresponsive to people’s needs, etc. If in the future Iraq is viewed as a success (it certainly is possible), the economy rebounds (say under a McCain administration perhaps) and people begin to forget how crappy they feel right now, and start to look back at the larger issues that effected the 2000s - then his chances to be remembered well are good.
So, we shall see. He most certainly could be remembered as a miserable failure. Its possible he will be regarded by history as a phenomenally horrid president who should be counted among the worst.
But I doubt it. Perhaps its because I am approaching his administration by intentionally separating myself from “now” and taking some steps back to see the good and the bad. Perhaps because any president who gets elected twice usually isn’t put at the bottom of the list (there are a great deal of historians that count the Nixon presidency as a success, and he was much more hated than Bush is now). I don’t know - its just a gut feeling.
Put this article in a time capsule, and open it in exactly 20 years. Then, lets see if my hunch is right, and he is remembered at least somewhat warmly, or if the hate filled partisans who can’t see five minutes past their nose are on to something.
Copyright 2008 © Political Capital
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